I haven't written on this blog in a long time. More than nine years has passed since I last graced this website with my writing prowess. In the intervening years, I've done a lot of things you probably don't care about. And I'm cool with that. I don't care much about the things you did, either.
We're here now and it's World Cup time and that's what really matters. Besides Qatar being a hotbed of human rights abuses, there are a bunch of interesting storylines.
Will Messi finally get the gold in his fifth try?
Does France implode like they seem keen to do after success?
Are England's run of close-but-no-cigar successes coming to an end?
Will the Young Yanks of our dear old USMNT break through to the knockouts?
Can Brazil defend well enough to allow their attacking talent to shine? Will they need to defend at all?
I am intrigued by these questions, as I know you are. You would not be here unless you are A.) Related to me, or B.) A voracious consumer of World Cup content. I am here to provide, be you related or not. Here are my predictions for the 2022 World Cup.
Group A
Netherlands - 9 pts
Senegal- 4 pts
Qatar- 2 pts
Ecuador 1pt
This one is pretty clear to me. There are two teams that sit ahead of the others. However, Senegal can be prone to letdowns and I see them in a low-scoring draw with Qatar. Senegal becomes an especially curious case with the news that superstar winger Sadio Mane will miss the World Cup. But the Qataris won't be able to take advantage of that, losing to Netherlands and drawing Ecuador. With Mane, I felt that Senegal might be able to salvage a draw with the Dutch, but it seems now more likely that The Netherlands take all the points in each match.
Group B
England - 9 pts
USA - 4pts
Wales - 4pts
Iran- 0 pts
I think England will cruise comfortably through the group and should be absolutely flying into the knockout. They have the best roster in the group and shouldn't be tested all that much. USA might have the youthful energy to give them a fit in small spurts, but over the 90 minutes, England's class should prevail. Wales has just enough to make things interesting. I think they can get a draw against USA and a win over Iran. Goal differential could be the difference, and I think it comes down to a multi-goal loss to England that keeps Wales out.
Group C
Argentina - 9pts
Poland- 4 pts
Mexico- 2 pts
Saudi Arabia - 1 pts
Argentina is a no-doubter here. They should win all three fairly easily. Poland maybe a semi-surprise to get through, but I just don't like where Mexico is. I think El Tri will bow out with two draws and a loss. Poland can defend well enough to frustrate Mexico and should beat Saudi Arabia. Four points should be enough in this group.
Group D
Denmark- 7pts
France- 5pts
Tunisia- 4pts
Australia- 1pts
Here's the surprise group. Denmark is tough. The Danish midfield is ripe with a blend of grit and craftiness. I think they beat both Tunisia and Australia and get a draw against France. The French fall apart after winning. Look what happened in '02 after their win on home soil in '98. They were an absolute farce, going 0-1-2. I don't think they'll be that bad, but it's close. They are crazy talented, but defending champs don't repeat. The French will squeak out of this group by virtue of a draw between Australia and Tunisia.
Group E
Germany- 5pts
Spain- 5pts
Japan- 3pts
Costa Rica- 1pt
The Group of Death. I don't know if Spain or Germany have a central striker that is Golden Boot material. This group, while it looks exciting on paper, will be an absolute slog. I don't see many goals in this one. Draws are abundant, with Japan drawing everyone. I'm just not in love with the German or Spanish rosters at this point. They can defend, but where is the attacking talent? Germany don't have a dangerous CF and Muller is approximately 61 years old. Spain don't either, unless you're confident in Alvaro Morata (I'm not). Scoring will have to come from the CM and Winger positions for both squads and that's always a tricky thing. Havertz and Sane (Germany) and Asensio (Spain) will be ones to watch from those positions. I think Germany tops the group based on a stingy back line and elite goalkeeping.
Group F
Belgium- 7pts
Croatia- 5pts
Canada- 2pts
Morocco- 2pts
The Golden Generation of Belgium is beginning to age out. But they still have the horses to take this group without much hand wringing. De Bruyne is possibly the best all-around player in the world at this point and should direct traffic well enough to supply the sometimes-unreliable Belgian strikers. Croatia is very strong in midfield. With Kovacic and Modric, they can make life hard for anyone in the center of the park, but their GK position is largely unproven. Canada was sensational in qualifying, but it's an inexperienced bunch without much exposure in top European leagues. Morocco simply don't have a goal-getter.
Group G
Brazil - 9pts
Switzerland- 2pts
Cameroon- 2pts
Serbia- 2pts
Brazil are simply loaded, but that's nothing new. The second options in midfield and attack for Brazil would make a pretty formidable World Cup squad on their own. The only question for me comes in the back. Thiago Silva has been good since his move to Chelsea, but at 38 years old, one wonders how much is left in the tank. There are other high quality players in the back, Marquinhos is great at PSG, but I still have questions. However, there isn't another side in the group that should give too much trouble to Brazil. In fact, I think the rest of this group is rather tight. I can see each of the other three nations drawing matches against one another, setting up a fight to see who loses by the least number of goals to Brazil. Switzerland have the stronger defensive core of the three and I think they squeak through.
Group H
Uruguay- 5pts
South Korea- 5pts
Portugal- 3pts
Ghana- 1pt
Both Uruguay and Portugal, littered with a mix of aging superstars and youthful exuberance, could be surprising flameouts this time around. And I think it's Portugal that complete the collapse. The Ronaldo drama at Man U has gotten ugly and CR7 has gotten old. He's not the player who hoisted the team on his back at the Euros. When he's on the pitch, everyone around seems to play in deference to his greatness. With that greatness in decline, I think the Portuguese exit early. Uruguay has enough quality to top the group, but I would not be surprised if South Korea shockingly took top spot. I think Uruguay sneaks out goal differential and gets the favorable knockout draw here. Ghana have been lucky to qualify at all and muster only a single point in my projection.
KNOCKOUT- ROUND OF 16
Group A winner Netherlands vs Group B runner-up USA
It's one cycle too soon for the Baby Eagles. This bunch will be formidable when the World Cup comes to North America in 2026 and they've done well to reach the knockouts. Experience and tactical awareness should fall to Netherlands here. BUT IT DOESNT. The Netherlands are too emotional, too fractured, and a little overrated. USA exceeds expectations and wins this one, 2-1.
Group C winner Argentina vs Group D runner-up France
I was on the verge of not putting France through. I don't like the attitude of the defending champions, despite their obvious talent. If there is another team more talented than France, it can only be Argentina or Brazil. Unfortunately for Les Bleus, they meet one of those teams in the knockout round. Argentina are on a mission. 2-0 win for Argentina.
Group E winner Germany vs Group F runner-up Croatia
UPSET ALERT! The Germans' lack of a consistent goal-getter comes back to bite them. Croatia can do this with craftiness and midfield dominance. I think it's a close run affair that might go to penalties. I have it 1-1 with Croatia advancing on pens.
Group G winner Brazil vs Group H runner-up South Korea
There's not much to say here. South Korea can't offer anything in the form of a reasonable threat to a high-flying, confident Brazil. It's a 3-0 win for Brazil.
Group B winner England vs Group A runner-up Senegal
Senegal were the beneficiaries of a weak group and got to this point somewhat by default. England is pragmatic and should dominate possession against any team of this caliber. Senegal without Mane don't offer a true threat and England wins comfortably, 2-0.
Group D winner Denmark vs Group C runner-up Poland
I love the Danes. They're a strong, talented side with a hard edge. Their success in the Euros and the miraculous return of Christian Eriksen should have them confident and motivated. Poland are gritty, but not quite talented enough to move on. Denmark wins 2-1 in extra time.
Group F winner Belgium vs Group E runner-up Spain
What a matchup we have on this side of the bracket. On the other, it was Argentina vs France. Either Spain or Germany is bound to be in this spot, so no matter if I'm wrong about the order, this match will be scintillating. Just who are Belgium? Eden Hazard isn't the global dominator he used to be and the rest of the core have aged. They're good, but Spain is better. I think Belgium wins the group, but bows out to Spain, 3-1.
Group H winner Uruguay vs Group G runner-up Switzerland
Oops, they did it again. Uruguay becomes the second group winner in as many matches to head home early. I can't say why, but I think this Swiss team is going to give absolute fits to everyone. They're fast in the midfield and stingy at the back. Uruguay can't find a way through with Cavani and Suarez nearing the end of their respective runs. Switzerland moves on 1-0.
QUARTERFINALS
USA vs Argentina
This one is intriguing. The last memory I have of a USA v Argentina match is the 2016 Copa America semifinal, when Argentina smacked The US back to reality in a 4-0 thrashing. Pulisic was on that squad, but almost nobody else is left on the USMNT roster from that game. So I'm not sure there's a revenge factor to play on. I don't think it matters much, anyhow. Argentina is the better, more experienced side. There's little that the US can do in the face of a blistering attack. Argentina wins 3-1.
Brazil vs Croatia
Again, there's just not much to say. Croatia could pull a shock result, but there's nothing here that says they will. Brazil are too strong, too skilled, and simply too much. Brazil in a landslide, 4-1.
England vs Denmark
This has all the markings of a tight, cagey match that has English fans wringing their hands from London to Manchester. England going to penalty kicks doesn't sound good to anyone wearing the Three Lions. But, that's what I see here. And England can overcome the demons of the shootout. It's 1-1 after extra time and England moves on after the shootout.
Spain vs Switzerland
I very much want to pick an upset here. There's usually a shocking semifinalist and I think the Swiss have the makings. Defensively, they can play very tight and hit on the counter with the speed of Embolo and Shaqiri. They have the benefit of a tightly contested group and a favorable matchup in the round of 16. So, that's what I'm going to do. Spain comes from the Group of Death and has already played stressful matches against Germany, Japan, and Belgium. They're done in the quarters on penalty kicks. 0-0 after extra time, Switzerland advances.
SEMIFINALS
Argentina vs Brazil
This is where it gets real. Brazil is yet to face a team that can give them a true test. Argentina has erased the defending champs from the equation. The South American showdown of the two biggest powers comes to us in the World cup semifinal. The last time these two met in a World Cup setting was Italia '90 in the round of 16. Argentina won 1-0 on a goal by Claudio Caniggia. History repeats itself. Brazil, looking like Thanos up to this point ("I am inevitable") comes crashing down to their biggest rival. Argentina wins 1-0 in extra time.
England vs Switzerland
Oh, this isn't the semifinal you thought you'd get? Too bad, this is the one you're getting. Switzerland has been on a miraculous run, with savage defending and lightning counter attacks. England is wise, however. They can overmatch the midfield and dominate the ball. Unlike Spain, who don't have an imposing CF, England have Harry Kane. Whether through the run of play or from set pieces, he finds himself in the right spots. England holds on in the end, winning 2-1.
FINAL
Argentina vs England
So here we go. The Falklands War all over again.
First, I'd like to remind all of you that Qatar sucks. It's a repressive playground for billionaire oil barons who couldn't care less that they killed migrant works with unsafe working conditions in an extreme environment. Those workers couldn't even leave when they found out about the slave labor conditions, because their passports were under the control of their employers.Qatar bribed corrupt FIFA officials to get this tournament, all in effort to wash the dirty resume of a regime that belongs at the bottom of the compost heap of history. Qatar sucks ass. I'll be watching this World Cup through clenched teeth and hair-trigger middle fingers at the ready.
And now, back to our regularly scheduled dumbass predictions.
England and Argentina. What needs to be said that hasn't already? Two nations desperate to hoist the cup again.
Lionel Messi, perhaps the greatest player the world has ever known, has famously crashed out in four previous attempts at the Cup. This will, in any sane universe, be his last attempt. Argentina are good at the front. It's not just the Messi show this time around. Dybala, Di Maria, and Lautaro Martinez are all World Class attackers. They've gotten here by smashing away at backlines that desperately want breathing room. They've been close in the past. Four years ago, they finished (shockingly) second in their group and drew eventual champion France in the knockouts. A 4-3 win by the French in the match of the tournament sent Argentina home with no hardware. Eight years ago, they romped to the final, only to fall 1-0 to Germany on Mario Goetze's stoppage time wonder strike.
England have been close to greatness as well. Italy won the Euro 2020 final over England on penalties. The Brits lost in the World Cup semis in extra time to Croatia four years ago. They've been on the cusp, driven by a generation of players who've helped make the Premier League the deepest and most entertaining professional league in the world. They've been building to this point.
In the end, the advantage for me comes in midfield. I think England are stronger there. Both sides have attacking options outside the focal points of Messi and Kane. Both backlines are good, but can be prone to silly mistakes at times. But England's midfield, with Henderson, Mount, Phillips, and Rice looks primed for the moment. That proves the difference for me, and I think England brings it home - finally- for the first time since 1966. Lionel Messi ends his international career without a World Cup.
England 3 Argentina 2
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