2022 World Cup Predictions

 I haven't written on this blog in a long time. More than nine years has passed since I last graced this website with my writing prowess. In the intervening years, I've done a lot of things you probably don't care about. And I'm cool with that. I don't care much about the things you did, either.

We're here now and it's World Cup time and that's what really matters. Besides Qatar being a hotbed of human rights abuses, there are a bunch of interesting storylines.

Will Messi finally get the gold in his fifth try?

Does France implode like they seem keen to do after success?

Are England's run of close-but-no-cigar successes coming to an end?

Will the Young Yanks of our dear old USMNT break through to the knockouts?

Can Brazil defend well enough to allow their attacking talent to shine? Will they need to defend at all?

I am intrigued by these questions, as I know you are. You would not be here unless you are A.) Related to me, or B.) A voracious consumer of World Cup content. I am here to provide, be you related or not. Here are my predictions for the 2022 World Cup.

Group A

Netherlands - 9 pts

Senegal- 4 pts

Qatar- 2 pts

Ecuador 1pt

This one is pretty clear to me. There are two teams that sit ahead of the others. However, Senegal can be prone to letdowns and I see them in a low-scoring draw with Qatar. Senegal becomes an especially curious case with the news that superstar winger Sadio Mane will miss the World Cup. But the Qataris won't be able to take advantage of that, losing to Netherlands and drawing Ecuador. With Mane, I felt that Senegal might be able to salvage a draw with the Dutch, but it seems now more likely that The Netherlands take all the points in each match.

Group B

England - 9 pts

USA - 4pts

Wales - 4pts

Iran- 0 pts

I think England will cruise comfortably through the group and should be absolutely flying into the knockout. They have the best roster in the group and shouldn't be tested all that much. USA might have the youthful energy to give them a fit in small spurts, but over the 90 minutes, England's class should prevail. Wales has just enough to make things interesting. I think they can get a draw against USA and a win over Iran. Goal differential could be the difference, and I think it comes down to a multi-goal loss to England that keeps Wales out.

Group C

Argentina - 9pts

Poland- 4 pts

Mexico- 2 pts

Saudi Arabia - 1 pts

Argentina is a no-doubter here. They should win all three fairly easily. Poland maybe a semi-surprise to get through, but I just don't like where Mexico is. I think El Tri will bow out with two draws and a loss. Poland can defend well enough to frustrate Mexico and should beat Saudi Arabia. Four points should be enough in this group.

Group D

Denmark- 7pts

France- 5pts

Tunisia- 4pts

Australia- 1pts

Here's the surprise group. Denmark is tough. The Danish midfield is ripe with a blend of grit and craftiness. I think they beat both Tunisia and Australia and get a draw against France. The French fall apart after winning. Look what happened in '02 after their win on home soil in '98. They were an absolute farce, going 0-1-2. I don't think they'll be that bad, but it's close. They are crazy talented, but defending champs don't repeat. The French will squeak out of this group by virtue of a draw between Australia and Tunisia. 

Group E

Germany- 5pts

Spain- 5pts

Japan- 3pts

Costa Rica- 1pt

The Group of  Death. I don't know if Spain or Germany have a central striker that is Golden Boot material. This group, while it looks exciting on paper, will be an absolute slog. I don't see many goals in this one. Draws are abundant, with Japan drawing everyone. I'm just not in love with the German or Spanish rosters at this point. They can defend, but where is the attacking talent? Germany don't have a dangerous CF and Muller is approximately 61 years old. Spain don't either, unless you're confident in Alvaro Morata (I'm not). Scoring will have to come from the CM and Winger positions for both squads and that's always a tricky thing. Havertz and Sane (Germany) and Asensio (Spain) will be ones to watch from those positions. I think Germany tops the group based on a stingy back line and elite goalkeeping.

Group F

Belgium- 7pts

Croatia- 5pts

Canada- 2pts

Morocco- 2pts

The Golden Generation of Belgium is beginning to age out. But they still have the horses to take this group without much hand wringing. De Bruyne is possibly the best all-around player in the world at this point and should direct traffic well enough to supply the sometimes-unreliable Belgian strikers. Croatia is very strong in midfield. With Kovacic and Modric, they can make life hard for anyone in the center of the park, but their GK position is largely unproven. Canada was sensational in qualifying, but it's an inexperienced bunch without much exposure in top European leagues. Morocco simply don't have a goal-getter. 

Group G

Brazil - 9pts

Switzerland- 2pts

Cameroon- 2pts

Serbia- 2pts

Brazil are simply loaded, but that's nothing new. The second options in midfield and attack for Brazil would make a pretty formidable World Cup squad on their own. The only question for me comes in the back. Thiago Silva has been good since his move to Chelsea, but at 38 years old, one wonders how much is left in the tank. There are other high quality players in the back, Marquinhos is great at PSG, but I still have questions. However, there isn't another side in the group that should give too much trouble to Brazil. In fact, I think the rest of this group is rather tight. I can see each of the other three nations drawing matches against one another, setting up a fight to see who loses by the least number of goals to Brazil. Switzerland have the stronger defensive core of the three and I think they squeak through.

Group H

Uruguay- 5pts

South Korea- 5pts

Portugal- 3pts

Ghana- 1pt

Both Uruguay and Portugal, littered with a mix of aging superstars and youthful exuberance, could be surprising flameouts this time around. And I think it's Portugal that complete the collapse. The Ronaldo drama at Man U has gotten ugly and CR7 has gotten old. He's not the player who hoisted the team on his back at the Euros. When he's on the pitch, everyone around seems to play in deference to his greatness. With that greatness in decline, I think the Portuguese exit early. Uruguay has enough quality to top the group, but I would not be surprised if South Korea shockingly took top spot. I think Uruguay sneaks out goal differential and gets the favorable knockout draw here. Ghana have been lucky to qualify at all and muster only a single point in my projection.

KNOCKOUT- ROUND OF 16

Group A winner Netherlands vs Group B runner-up USA

It's one cycle too soon for the Baby Eagles. This bunch will be formidable when the World Cup comes to North America in 2026 and they've done well to reach the knockouts. Experience and tactical awareness should fall to Netherlands here. BUT IT DOESNT. The Netherlands are too emotional, too fractured, and a little overrated. USA exceeds expectations and wins this one, 2-1.

Group C winner Argentina vs Group D runner-up France

I was on the verge of not putting France through. I don't like the attitude of the defending champions, despite their obvious talent. If there is another team more talented than France, it can only be Argentina or Brazil. Unfortunately for Les Bleus, they meet one of those teams in the knockout round. Argentina are on a mission. 2-0 win for Argentina.

Group E winner Germany vs Group F runner-up Croatia

UPSET ALERT! The Germans' lack of a consistent goal-getter comes back to bite them. Croatia can do this with craftiness and midfield dominance. I think it's a close run affair that might go to penalties. I have it 1-1 with Croatia advancing on pens.

Group G winner Brazil vs Group H runner-up South Korea

There's not much to say here. South Korea can't offer anything in the form of a reasonable threat to a high-flying, confident Brazil. It's a 3-0 win for Brazil.

Group B winner England vs Group A runner-up Senegal

Senegal were the beneficiaries of a weak group and got to this point somewhat by default. England is pragmatic and should dominate possession against any team of this caliber. Senegal without Mane don't offer a true threat and England wins comfortably, 2-0.

Group D winner Denmark vs Group C runner-up Poland

I love the Danes. They're a strong, talented side with a hard edge. Their success in the Euros and the miraculous return of Christian Eriksen should have them confident and motivated. Poland are gritty, but not quite talented enough to move on. Denmark wins 2-1 in extra time.

Group F winner Belgium vs Group E runner-up Spain

What a matchup we have on this side of the bracket. On the other, it was Argentina vs France. Either Spain or Germany is bound to be in this spot, so no matter if I'm wrong about the order, this match will be scintillating. Just who are Belgium? Eden Hazard isn't the global dominator he used to be and the rest of the core have aged. They're good, but Spain is better. I think Belgium wins the group, but bows out to Spain, 3-1.

Group H winner Uruguay vs Group G runner-up Switzerland

Oops, they did it again. Uruguay becomes the second group winner in as many matches to head home early. I can't say why, but I think this Swiss team is going to give absolute fits to everyone. They're fast in the midfield and stingy at the back. Uruguay can't find a way through with Cavani and Suarez nearing the end of their respective runs. Switzerland moves on 1-0.

QUARTERFINALS

USA vs Argentina

This one is intriguing. The last memory I have of a USA v Argentina match is the 2016 Copa America semifinal, when Argentina smacked The US back to reality in a 4-0 thrashing. Pulisic was on that squad, but almost nobody else is left on the USMNT roster from that game. So I'm not sure there's a revenge factor to play on. I don't think it matters much, anyhow. Argentina is the better, more experienced side. There's little that the US can do in the face of a blistering attack. Argentina wins 3-1.

Brazil vs Croatia

Again, there's just not much to say. Croatia could pull a shock result, but there's nothing here that says they will. Brazil are too strong, too skilled, and simply too much. Brazil in a landslide, 4-1.

England vs Denmark

This has all the markings of a tight, cagey match that has English fans wringing their hands from London to Manchester. England going to penalty kicks doesn't sound good to anyone wearing the Three Lions. But, that's what I see here. And England can overcome the demons of the shootout. It's 1-1 after extra time and England moves on after the shootout.

Spain vs Switzerland

I very much want to pick an upset here. There's usually a shocking semifinalist and I think the Swiss have the makings. Defensively, they can play very tight and hit on the counter with the speed of Embolo and Shaqiri. They have the benefit of a tightly contested group and a favorable matchup in the round of 16. So, that's what I'm going to do. Spain comes from the Group of Death and has already played stressful matches against Germany, Japan, and Belgium. They're done in the quarters on penalty kicks. 0-0 after extra time, Switzerland advances.

SEMIFINALS

Argentina vs Brazil

This is where it gets real. Brazil is yet to face a team that can give them a true test. Argentina has erased the defending champs from the equation. The South American showdown of the two biggest powers comes to us in the World cup semifinal. The last time these two met in a World Cup setting was Italia '90 in the round of 16. Argentina won 1-0 on a goal by Claudio Caniggia. History repeats itself. Brazil, looking like Thanos up to this point ("I am inevitable") comes crashing down to their biggest rival. Argentina wins 1-0 in extra time.

England vs Switzerland

Oh, this isn't the semifinal you thought you'd get? Too bad, this is the one you're getting. Switzerland has been on a miraculous run, with savage defending and lightning counter attacks. England is wise, however. They can overmatch the midfield and dominate the ball. Unlike Spain, who don't have an imposing CF, England have Harry Kane. Whether through the run of play or from set pieces, he finds himself in the right spots. England holds on in the end, winning 2-1.

FINAL

Argentina vs England

So here we go. The Falklands War all over again.

First, I'd like to remind all of you that Qatar sucks. It's a repressive playground for billionaire oil barons who couldn't care less that they killed migrant works with unsafe working conditions in an extreme environment. Those workers couldn't even leave when they found out about the slave labor conditions, because their passports were under the control of their employers.Qatar bribed corrupt FIFA officials to get this tournament, all in effort to wash the dirty resume of a regime that belongs at the bottom of the compost heap of history. Qatar sucks ass. I'll be watching this World Cup through clenched teeth and hair-trigger middle fingers at the ready.

And now, back to our regularly scheduled dumbass predictions.

England and Argentina. What needs to be said that hasn't already? Two nations desperate to hoist the cup again. 

Lionel Messi, perhaps the greatest player the world has ever known, has famously crashed out in four previous attempts at the Cup. This will, in any sane universe, be his last attempt. Argentina are good at the front. It's not just the Messi show this time around. Dybala, Di Maria, and Lautaro Martinez are all World Class attackers. They've gotten here by smashing away at backlines that desperately want breathing room. They've been close in the past. Four years ago, they finished (shockingly) second in their group and drew eventual champion France in the knockouts. A 4-3 win by the French in the match of the tournament sent Argentina home with no hardware. Eight years ago, they romped to the final, only to fall 1-0 to Germany on Mario Goetze's stoppage time wonder strike. 

England have been close to greatness as well. Italy won the Euro 2020 final over England on penalties. The Brits lost in the World Cup semis in extra time to Croatia four years ago. They've been on the cusp, driven by a generation of players who've helped make the Premier League the deepest and most entertaining professional league in the world. They've been building to this point.

In the end, the advantage for me comes in midfield. I think England are stronger there. Both sides have attacking options outside the focal points of Messi and Kane. Both backlines are good, but can be prone to silly mistakes at times. But England's midfield, with Henderson, Mount, Phillips, and Rice looks primed for the moment. That proves the difference for me, and I think England brings it home - finally- for the first time since 1966. Lionel Messi ends his international career without a World Cup.

England 3 Argentina 2

Grown-Up Sports Fan

I love sports. I really always have. There's always been some magnetism about the competition.  Having grown up mostly in a small Nebraska town, population 220, you could say I didn't have many kids to play games with.  But I loved the games I played by myself just the same. And being a Nebraskan, most often those one-man games were football games.

I was a quarterback, running back, wide receiver. I threw passes to myself. I scored all the touchdowns. And I never, ever lost. Just like my beloved Cornhuskers.

Until those Cornhuskers did lose.

I was devastated by the beatings at the hands of Miami and Florida State. That '94 Orange Bowl still counts as a win in my fragile, childish memories.  I loved everything about the Big Red. They could do no wrong. They were the best. Memorial Stadium was my Mecca, Tom Osborne my prophet, Kent Pavelka my pastor. And a loss could ruin a weekend, if not a week.

And then, sometime in my 20's, I grew up. Not just physically, nor mentally, but as a sports fan I gained a level of maturity. Nebraska football was no longer my perfect ideal.

You might point at the fact that they began losing more often and I perhaps got used to the idea. You might point at the fact that I left the state and removed myself from the immersion and inundation that Nebraska offers. You might find a number of reasons why I no longer worshipped at the altar of the Big Red N. But those would really only be mitigating factors.

I just grew up.  My perspective changed. Not every Husker was the best to ever play the game. The coaches were not infallible figures of complete purity. I had lived a little bit of life and grown to understand the nature of humanity a little better. And the nature of sports.

I grew to understand that my deep, emotional investment in a sporting contest that I could not control would eventually lead to frustration, anger, or depression.  And so, I stopped investing that emotion.

But so many have not. So many are stuck in the adolescent stages of their fan hood. And it's far from being just a Nebraska thing. This is everywhere. So many still live and die by the outcome of something that, ultimately, doesn't matter all that much. They take offense to criticism of their team to such a degree that they're willing to fight -- actually throw punches -- anyone who does.  They spew hate and vitriol toward opponents. They verbally assault officials who, in a bizarre twist of irony, make genuine mistakes, as any human might. They will defend the most ridiculous of actions through muddled logic.  They seek to blame failures on anyone or anything, as long as it isn't their team.

So, now I've called out the fans.  Do I just hate sports fans now? Definitely not. Without fans, the games don't exist as they currently do. And I still love the games. But I don't love everything about fans, just the same as I don't love everything about Nebraska football.

I still want to see my team win. I still identify with that Big Red N. It still sucks when they lose. All that is the same. But, removed is the extremism of my fan hood. And I enjoy the games even more than I used to, because the fear of a bad result is also gone.

Be a fan. But be a grown-up at the same time. It is possible.

Blind Loyalty Is Still Blind

I'm sick of this now.  Really.

We need to dispel some myths about being a "real fan."

First, there's no such thing as a "real fan."  Everyone who is a fan is a fan on his or her own terms.  To say that a person's terms of fanhood are invalid is absurd.  There are no rules for being a fan. Nobody is owed anything.

If you think that being a "real fan" means never questioning anything that happens with your team, you probably think that being a "real American" means never criticizing policy.  This is backward logic.

If your team goes out and gets beaten 45-0 and you're still rah-rah and ranting about how big a fan you are, you're just blind. You've buried your head in the sand. And if that's the way you want it, fine. But know this:  fans allowed to be displeased. It doesn't make one less of a fan if one isn't happy with the way things go.

If you unquestioningly support your team, regardless of what happens, of what, exactly, are you a fan? The uniform? The logo? I'd say you'd be completely justified in complaining about poor performance.

This is your chosen team. For many of you there's an emotional investment. When your expectations or hopes are dashed, you should probably be a little upset.

The term "fair-weather fan" gets tossed around a lot. It's used on those who boo. It's used on those who leave games early.  It's used on those who criticize performance. But again, nobody is owed anything. The team is not owed unfailing loyalty. The team is not owed the attendance of the crowd. The team is not owed the continued support of anyone in the face of poor performance.

And it goes both ways.

Fans are owed only what they pay for: a seat. They are not owed a certain number of wins. They are not owed championships. They are not owed the adoration of a frustrated coach.

But to say that they shouldn't be unhappy or critical is silly.

Yes, most of this is in reference to the recent events surrounding the comments from one Bo Pelini. He said some off-color things about the fans of the Nebraska Cornhuskers. But, you know, he's allowed that. He's allowed to have the opinion that fans shouldn't boo or leave at halftime. But those same fans are allowed to do exactly those things.

Everybody just needs to grow up and accept that the actions of others are their own. And fans will choose to support or criticize those actions. That's the nature of the fan.

My Take On Pelini

Stop.

Stop saying the Bo audio is some Omaha World Herald conspiracy/agenda. The OWH did not release this. Deadspin broke the story.  But, even if they had. Stop.  The job of the media is to report and investigate. The job of media is NOT to help win football games, recruit, protect Bo Pelini, or anything else.

So, stop being offended for the wrong reason. If you're a fan, remember that the only person who said "Fuck You" was the man you so staunchly defend.  Saying things like, "Stick by the team through thick and thin," and "Real fans support the team/coach, no matter what." means fans shouldn't have the right to dislike anything that happens with the team. It means don't question the regime. Ever. No matter what.  It means Bo's right and you're wrong. And when Bo's wrong, you're wrong for realizing it. If you don't love it, leave it.

 How ridiculous did all those Penn St. fans rioting in the streets seem? Weren't they just "being real fans?"  No. They were being stupid and ignorant. They weren't acting as rational-thinking human beings. As my father says, "Use your head for something other than a hat rack."  In this case, slip your gelatinous head out of that obviously constricting Husker cap and allow some blood flow to your brain.

This is what happens when you don' t know who to blame.  You suck down the Kool-Aid and bash anyone who doesn't. And you look ridiculous to the outside world.

However,

After some thinking about it, I don't think he should be fired.  Those were words. Not racist, not sexist, not directly abusive, and not bigoted words. They were petulant and childish words, but ultimately just words.  But I'm glad it came out.  He needed a little humility. We all do from time to time.  I think he'll be a better coach for it. At least, I hope so.

Husker Time Machine

Time travel is possible.

How do I know? Why am I so sure? Because I, Jon Schriner, on September 9th, 2012, traveled back to the year 2007. It was not a pleasant trip.

Yes, I did.

Yes, I did.

Yes, I did. How, you ask?  Well, perception is reality.  And I perceived a Nebraska defense that was slow, unmotivated, and undisciplined. Thus, through my perception, I was transported back to an undisclosed time in the fall of 2007.

 I watched as time and space slowly morphed Will Compton into Corey McKeon.  And then, in less time than it takes Cam Meredith to give up on a play, Andrew Green was Tierre Green, Ciante Evans was Armando Murillo, and PJ Smith was Rickey Thenarse.

The Blackshirts had gone back to the Hackshirts.

But, HOW?

I think I know the answer to that one, too. I saw something else happen. I didn't want to see it, but some things you just can't un-see.  It was just a fleeting glance from the corner of my eye, but I saw it.

Bo Pelini changed into Bill Callahan.

Ok, I'll drop the sci-fi tone, but I won't drop my point.

Bo Pelini is becoming Bill Callahan.

They aren't nearly the same coach. They aren't nearly the same person, nor do they have nearly the same attitude.  The thing they share is much more troubling:

the inability to admit when one is wrong.

Neither can accept that a mistake has been made.  Callahan couldn't admit when he had failed.  "We've been excellent in all areas," he said at a press conference.  Clearly, the 2007 Cornhuskers (staff included) had been far less than excellent in ANY area.

And Bo is sliding towards exactly that.

Look at his track record.  Sure, he came in and turned a defense around.  His scheme worked, and worked well with the players he had.  Ndomukong Suh became an overnight sensation.  Phillip Dillard went from "Who is THAT guy?" to "Who is that MAN?"

But today, it isn't the same.  You can say that the players don't fit the scheme.  But, in reality, it's the scheme that doesn't fit the players. There's a big difference.

Bo either doesn't see it or won't admit it.  Both are bad for Corn Nation.

That example may be a bit nebulous.  Here's a better one.

Taylor Martinez has not been the right man for the job since mid-season 2010.  Yet, Bo has stuck with him through some of the worst performances in Husker history.  He has, outright, refused to accept any criticism on the matter.  He's called out at least one reporter for doubting the decision to stick with Martinez.

It's a refusal to admit that his plan hasn't worked.  It's a refusal to make adjustments on the fly.

It's Billy C, all over again.

New Beginnings

So, I've decided to change up the format of The Failed Athlete.  I've been away from the blog for a while, and I think a change will be good. So, now coming to you (hopefully) five days a week-- The Failed Athlete podcast.  Here's episode 1: Why do you hate soccer?

New Football Year's Resolutions

So...football season is nearly over, huh? My, my...where has the time gone? Seems like only 6 months or so ago that his whole thing started. I guess it's time to start preparing my list of things to do now that football is going away.

1. Get un-fat.

I'm already working on it, but seriously. When did I get so tubby? It sort of looks like I swallowed an inner tube filled with gravy. Ugh.

2. Become a sudoku master.

I don't really have anything else to do. Putting those little numbers in their rightful homes gives a man the feeling of achievement. Like building a gazebo.

3. Build a gazebo.

It's dude stuff. Hammer, nails, shingles...that sort of thing. Might score some points with the ladyfriend while I'm at it.

4. Start watching college basketball.

Look, football...it ain't. However, if I want to make a good showing in the NCAA Tournament pools, I need to have a solid knowledge base. I can't consume CBB with the same veracity that I do CFB, but one game a week shouldn't be too much to ask. 

5. Aimlessly flip channels when college basketball gets boring.

Because, come on. Regular season college basketball? 

6. Finish a book

Admittedly, it's been a while since I finished one. With football gone, I think I can achieve that.

7. Star Wars Marathon (no Jar-Jar).

I haven't seen the original 3 in about a decade now. It's time.

8. Pick up that guitar

I've had the damned thing for something like, 12 years, and I still cant play it. I guess now is as good a time as any. You're never too old to learn something new, right?

9. Repair rage-broken guitar.

I will, inevitably, remember why I haven't learned to play it. Musical talent somewhere around a 2/10, fingers incredibly short, hands hobbit-small.

10. Give in and watch old football games

Yes, I know how it ends. No, that doesn't bother me. Not when it's June and I haven't had a hit since February.

11. Probably get fat again.
Let's face it. I get lazy and then football season starts and there's no TIME for working out then.

12. Weep openly.
This will probably happen sooner than later. I just miss football so damn much....*sniffle*

13. Get a real job.
This whole  full-time student thing has been great, but the government will be ceasing my GI Bill real soon. Really, I just need to make enough money to afford cable so that I don't miss any football games.

14. Visit a foreign country.
This one is a cop-out. The trip is already planned. I just needed something to cross off.

15. Go fishing.
I didn't go even once last off-season. This year will be different.