A Look at Boston's Miraculous Failure

A lot of analysts are eating crow this morning. 42 of the 45 baseball experts at ESPN predicted the Red Sox to at least reach the World Series. All 45 had Beantown winning the East. Every single one.

My question: Whose collapse was more disturbing?

You couldn't have predicted all the injuries for Boston. You couldn't have predicted that Jonathan Papelbon, who converted 31 of 33 save opportunities, would blow #34. You wouldn't have predicted that it would be a loss to Orioles keeping the Red Sox out of the playoffs.

But, that loss to the Orioles is just a microcosm of the last month for Boston.

 September 5th. It was a Monday in Toronto. Blue Jays rookie Brett Lawrie hit an 11th-inning, walk-off home run to beat Boston 1-0.  Two days later, leading 8-6, Boston gave up 5 runs in the bottom of the 8th. They managed 2 in the 9th, but ultimately fell to Toronto 11-10. Win those two games and you're in.

September 10th. Red Sox vs. Rays. Evan Longoria, last night's hero, knocked an RBI single in the 11th to beat Boston 6-5. Win that game and the Rays are home for Halloween.

And there are more. A 5-4 loss to Toronto, 4-3 loss to Tampa Bay, and a 6-5 loss to Baltimore. All of these crucial September games were winnable, just as game #162 was winnable. But in each one, like last night they came up one run short. The season came down to one run.

Ahh, but lest we forget. The Red Sox also began the season with six consecutive losses. Win any two of those games and it's a story of how Boston almost collapsed.

People like to say that the regular season in baseball doesn't matter. The Red Sox beg to differ. They lost 72 games this season. If they'd only lost 70, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

What makes the collapse so much crazier is looking at Boston's team statistics. The Red Sox led the majors in  runs scored (875), on-base percentage (.349), and slugging percentage (.461). Their team batting average of .280 was second only to Texas.

Boston's team ERA in September was 7.08

How could a team with so much offensive firepower fail so hard down the stretch? Again, we only need look at the last inning of the final game against the Orioles. Pitching.

The Red Sox finished 22nd in team ERA(4.20). Playoff teams do not pitch that poorly. Of the eight playoff teams, only one is ranked lower than 13th in team ERA, the Detroit Tigers. The difference there is Justin Verlander, who is easily the best pitcher in the American League this season. The Tigers may be 18th in team ERA, but they threw Verlander every fifth day and got eight innings and win. Boston didn't have anyone like that down the stretch. Boston didn't have anyone like that at all.

Boston was 28th in quality starts(starting pitcher goes at least 6 innings, allowing three or less earned runs). Only 71 times in 162 games did a Boston pitcher get a quality start. The Phillies had 108. Houston, which finished with the worst record in baseball, had 80 quality starts.

Pitching is what let Boston down all season, and it's what let them down in the end.

 Maybe the curse wasn't lifted. Maybe it was just under rain delay.

Lockout: The Best Thing The NFL Has Done In 15 Years

This summer's lockout may have been the most significant thing the NFL has done since the implementation of the 2-point conversion. And it's been for the better.

Sure. We all got sick of it. Schefty and Mort and Ed Werder and Sal Paolantonio were on Sports Center every day counting the sorrows of player and owner alike. It was a three-ring flea circus that nobody wanted to pay to see after day six. But looking back, after three weeks of regular season play, I love the lockout. It's my favorite lockout ever. Ever.

I like points. Blowouts, close games, whatever. Just let me see somebody crossing the goal line a whole mess of times. What I don't want is an 9-3 snoozer.

Defense may win championships, but it doesn't win my attention. Unless that defense scores 30 points per game. It's the reason I love college football so much: huge scorelines. Well, that and the fact that I'm from Nebraska. 63-34. 42-28. 56-55(OT). I love all those games. I have a feeling I'm not alone.

And this season, the NFL is producing bigger scores than ever.

Watching these first weeks of the season, I felt like I was seeing more scoring than in recent years. I checked the numbers to back me up.

I looked at three things:
1. Number of times 30-39 points was scored.
2. Number of times 40+ points was scored
3. Number of games in which both teams scored less than 20

It's not even close. Through three weeks in 2009 the stats were as follows:

1. Number of times 30-39 points was scored- 15
2. Number of times 40+ points was scored- 2
3. Number of games in which both teams scored less than 20- 9


In 2010 it was a little better.

1. Number of times 30-39 points was scored- 18
2. Number of times 40+ points was scored- 1
3. Number of games in which both teams scored less than 20- 13

As for the first three weeks of 2011, its pretty amazing. 24 scores of over 30 points and 4 of them are 40 pointers.

1. Number of times 30-39 points was scored- 20
2. Number of times 40+ points was scored- 4
3. Number of games in which both teams scored less than 20-7

Five more 30+ performances doesn't sound like much over a three-week span. It's less than two more per week. But let's take a peek at category #3, what I like to call "double offensive futility, or D.O.F."

In the first three weeks of 2011, only seven games have showcased the lowly offensive talent that produces two scores of less than 20. In 2010, a whopping 13 games fell into the D.O.F. category. Nearly double the amount of boring, double-barreled, stink-fests.

Check the ratio there. ("30-point performances" to "games with both teams under 20")
2011: 24 to 7 
2010: 19 to 13

My perception is right on. Not that I'm bragging.

It's all related to that God-forsaken, beating-a-dead-horse, never-wanna-see-Mort-and-Schefty-again lockout.

Without all the OTA's and mini-camps and training camps, something happened. The vast speculation was that offenses would be waaaaay behind and play would be boring and dominated by defense.

Au contraire, mon frere. Or, as that lovable old lunatic, Lee Corso, so aptly says at every moment, appropriate or not, "Not so fast, my friend."

 NFL defenses have clearly been hurt by the lockout more than their counterparts. Tackling is suspect. Conditioning is an issue.  Points are easier to come by this season than an Al Davis joke.

It seems teams have been unable to spend as much time scheming for individual opponents and have, instead, spent time implementing the basics of their own defensive systems. And those base defenses are getting burned by offensive coordinators who are putting the ball in the hands of their best athletes and letting them go bonkers.

So, as much as I hated it, the lockout was actually a good thing. I now regret my wishes for Adam Schefter to stroke out and keel over, leaving only the bookshelf holding his mini Michigan helmet and wedding photo in the shot.

Adam Schefter: Bringer of the Apocalypse

Can't you just hear Sage Steele?
"Adam? I think we've lost Adam. Well, on to baseball where the Yankees...."

Maybe not.

As for the NBA, I'm pretty sure their lockout won't have a similar effect. I can guarantee it won't effect me. My general disdain for all things NBA continues whether Kobe plays in Spain, Italy, China, Antarctica, Neptune or Los Angeles.

Besides, there's no defense in the NBA anyway.

Someone Tell FSU They Aren't Good

Nebraska defeated another inferior team. So did Wisconsin. Now, the two are on a collision course to open Big 10 play. But, Wisconsin has looked so much better and fans in the Corn State have been mashing the panic button since week one.

"Nebraska better find a way to stop the run/pass/meteor shower that Wisconsin will bring or else yadda yadda blah blah blah and so forth."

Burkhead and Co. are fast enough to cause problems for the Badgers

Take it easy, Husker Nation. Heed these words of wisdom, let it be. I think Plato said that. Could've been the Beatles. Nobody really knows.

This iteration of Cornhuskers will find success against a Wisconsin team that is considerably slower at virtually every position. Nebraska's strength, in a strange twist on an old story, will be team speed. The Midwestern Plow Boys who were once ridiculed by the Florida States and Miamis of the late 80's and early 90's for being too slow will show how far they've come since those long lost days.

Yes, Russell Wilson is good(understatement). Yes, Nick Toon catches everything in his hemisphere(overstatement). And yes, Montee Ball and James White are the best 1-2 running back punch in the country (accurate). But don't count out that little ol' team from Lincoln just yet.

You have to look at the most recent performance. I'll admit, 38-14 over Wyoming doesn't really look all that impressive. You must remember, however, that it very easily could have been 45-14. Isn't it amazing what seven points does for perception? 38 looks like, "They did what they were supposed to and not much more." But 45 looks like, "That offense can really score some points." The decision by Pelini and company to kneel on it with the ball at the Wyoming 2 with a little over a minute on the clock was classy indeed, but it did something else besides save a small piece of Wyoming's dignity.

It keeps the Huskers juuuust that far under the radar. As much as the #8 team in the country can be, I suppose.

And under the radar is good for this team. Expectations are bad. Didn't everyone expect to beat Texas last year after the Longhorns basically laid an egg in the non-con? Oops. Didn't everyone expect to crush A&M after big wins over Oklahoma State and Mizzou? Oops. Wasn't there a certain "nose-in-the-air" quality about the Husker faithful when the Holiday Bowl matchup with Washington was announced? Double oops.

I'm not saying that Nebraska will come out, guns blazing, and torch Madison, leaving a trail of Badger pelts in the wake. But, I don't buy into the theory that Wisconsin will send Nebraska back south just in time to harvest the disappointment growing in the fields of doubt spread across Husker Nation.

Nebraska may lose, and I'm actually predicting they will. But win or lose, this team will compete. That theory, I'm buying.

P.S.
After seeing Florida State fall to Clemson, I wonder when the preseason hype will stop. Matt Schick commented on Saturday that they're one of those teams that always lets down. National championship contender indeed. I'm just wondering how, at 2-2, they manage to still be in the Top 25.

Things don't get much better in Miami. A week after beating Ohio State in the IneligiBowl, they lose to Kansas State. Guess what that means? The second-highest rated team in Florida is USF. And they're only 2 spots behind the Gators.

Jagaloon, for Ian.

I saw Moneyball before Zakk & Jack

I saw "Moneyball" last night. Some of you will know it as "that new Brad Pitt" movie, while others will know it as "that Oakland A's" movie. We (the girlfriend and I) had passes to the sneak preview. Yes, I feel special. They checked purses to make sure nobody had a recording device, as if every cell phone in the joint wasn't a recording device. Anyway, the point is, I thought it was an entertaining, well-acted movie. You could say I enjoyed it. I didn't come out feeling like I'd wasted two-and-a-half hours of my life, which is really the barometer I use to determine the worth of a theater experience. I'm downplaying it, but it really was a good watch.

This morning, while tuned to my choice for local sports talk, 1620 AM, I heard the morning show, Zakk and Jack, discussing the movie, which neither of them have seen yet. Zakk and Jack are not local. They are, in fact, based in Indianapolis and are nationally syndicated on Fox Sports Radio. Remember that. It's going to matter, I promise. They apparently didn't get sneak preview passes to the top sports movie of the year. I could really stop there. I think that says a lot about their worth as national sports talk personalities. But stop I will not.

What they did was rip this movie for factual and historical inaccuracy. Did I mention that NEITHER have yet seen "Moneyball?" These two are hacks of the first kind.

I get it. A lot of sports movies that are "based on the true story" are altered stories. For example, one of my all time favorites, "Friday Night Lights", has Odessa-Permian losing in the Texas 5-A state championship. In reality, they lost in the semifinals. No big deal. Still a great movie.

I have no doubt that some of the events in "Moneyball" are added for dramatic effect. However, to go on national radio and tear apart a film which you have NEVER SEEN is detestable. How these two jagaloons managed to get themselves a nationally syndicated show is absolutely beyond me.

My advice--don't listen to Zakk & Jack. You could do something better with your time. Watching "Moneyball" would be a good start. You'll be ahead of those two morons.

I've begun

Yes, I got around to starting a blog. Good for me. Sports musings to come.